Think Lean to Escape the Planning Loop Trap

p>Underlying the operations of every company is itshappens in time with the demand from the customer.
value delivery system. It is the central processing unitProduction happens when needed-no more, no less.
of the entire company. For example, what does it takeContinuous flow is based on the principle of moving
for a computer manufacturer to receive an order,one item at a time (or a small and consistent batch of
process the order, produce the computer, deliver it, anditems) through a series of processing steps as
collect payment? What are all the steps that acontinuously as possible, with each step making just
mortgage company goes through in processing awhat is requested by the next step. The concept of
mortgage application and delivering a timely andcontinuous flow can be summarized in four
accurate loan decision? How does Toyota design awords-"make one, move one."
new vehicle made up of thousands of componentLine Balancing
parts, manage the daily flow of orders and shipmentsLine balancing is evenly distributing work among the
with suppliers and assembly plants?people in the process with the objective of meeting
Each business operation is different, but all of themcustomer demand (Takt time). This tool optimizes the
share one common trait: all are systems for creatingutilization of personnel so that all people in the process
customer value-value delivery systems. A company'sare doing more or less the same work content.
performance is the direct consequence of howBuffer and Safety Stocks
effective the system is managed. Companies thatThe focus of all lean process improvement is to
operate more efficiently and responsively than theirremove any constraints and ensure all processes run
competitors have better managed value deliveryflawlessly. Sometimes this is not always possible for
systems. Many company value delivery systemsthe following reasons: · Removing all the
perform poorly because of time traps. One of theprocess bottlenecks at once may not be feasible but
most formidable time traps is the planning loop.has to be done in phases
The Planning Loop Trap· Stabilizing the process may take longer than
A fundamental test of the quality of a company'santicipated
value-delivery system is whether or not it is caught in· Wide swings in customer demand
the planning loop. All businesses must do some sort ofUnder such circumstances buffer and safety stocks
planning for the future to ensure they are ready to fulfillare used. In a manufacturing situation buffer and
customer orders.safety stocks could be pre-determined levels of raw
Manufacturers are challenged by the need to ordermaterial, sub-assemblies, etc. In an office environment it
raw material, schedule facilities, and add labor, and socould be overtime, temporary workers, holiday pay,
on. Traditional manufacturing requires long lead times toetc.
settle conflicts between various jobs or activities thatTakt Time
require the same resources. The long lead times, inIn order to become flexible you must understand your
turn, requires sales forecasts to guide planning.customer ordering patterns (demand). Once you
Because sales forecasts are predictions they aredetermine customer demand you can determine Takt
inevitably wrong, however well intentioned. Naturally, astime or the pace of customer demand. Takt time is
lead times increase, the accuracy of the salesthe rate at which an organization must produce a
forecasts deteriorates. With more forecasting errors,product to satisfy customer demand. Producing to takt
the need for safety stocks and excess capacity atmeans synchronizing the pace of production with the
every level increases, and inventories swell.pace of sales.
Forecasting errors also mean more unscheduled jobsStandard Work
have to be expedited, thereby squeezing outStandard work is the "best known way" of doing the
scheduled jobs. The need for even longer lead timeswork. It can be based on the experience of the
become greater, and the planning loop expands-drivingworkforce, industry benchmarks, and current process
up costs, increasing delays, and creating inefficiencies incapability or technology requirements. Standard work
the value-delivery system. Managers trapped in theensures that workers are following the same process
planning loop often react by asking for betterevery time. The method is documented in writing so
forecasts and longer lead times. However, this isthat everyone understands how the job is done.
treating the symptom rather than the cause of theWork Cells
problem.The objectives of work cells are to create
The only way to break the planning loop is to thinkindependent, optimized, all inclusive operating units that
Lean and reduce the time wasted activities throughoutuse minimum space with all activities sequentially
the value-delivery system, thus reducing the need forplaced next to each other, usually processing for a
lead times. After all if you could drive lead times downproduct family. This allows product to be processed in
to zero, you would only have to forecast sales onea continuous flow.
day in advance. The really forward thinking companiesPull
understand this concept and are breaking theProviding what is needed, when it is needed, on time, in
devastating loop that strangles much of traditionalthe stipulated quantity. In a pull system production is
manufacturing and non manufacturing organizations.triggered by a signal (Kanban) based on what has
While lead times of zero is idealistic successful Leanbeen consumed, unlike a push system, in which
organizations have at a minimum kept their lead timesproduction is based on historical trends or sales
from increasing and many have reduced them,forecasts. A pull system enables work to flow without
thereby lessening the planning loop's damaging effect.detailed schedules. There are many other lean tools
Escape from the Planning Loop Trapavailable but implementing these few will help you
To escape from the planning loop companies haveescape the planning loop trap.
two choices.The challenge of becoming more flexible by reducing
1. Produce to forecast and ignore the fluctuations inthe time consumption in your value streams is not only
demand that would cause them to do otherwise.related to the factory but also white collar or office
2. Reduce the time delays in the flow of informationareas. Typically the majority of time for producing a
and product throughout the value stream.customer order is consumed beyond the factory-by
The real solution is to reduce the consumption of timedecision makers and by information processors. In
throughout your value-streams to become moremany cases 85% to 90% of the total value delivery
flexible. Flexible factories consume significantly lesstime of a manufactured product is eaten up by
time than traditional managed factories. Theadministrative processes. This is a significant
improvement in response time from being more flexibleobservation because it helps makes the case for lean
is even more impressive than in the improvement inprocess improvement in service organizations and
the productivity of labor and costs. Many companiesoffices.
have dramatically improved their manufacturingConclusion
response times by streamlining their processes andThe planning loop trap is the relationship between
becoming more flexible. Consider this example of oneforecasting errors and long lead times. Changes in
of Toyota's suppliers. A Toyota supplier had a leadcustomer demand results in forecast errors which
time of 15 days to ship parts to a Toyota assemblyimpacts the lead times in a traditional manufacturing
plant. Dissatisfied with this level of response to itsenvironment. As the forecasting errors grow
changing needs, Toyota went to work to help theinventories increase; more unscheduled jobs are
supplier reduce its lead time. By reducing lot sizes, theyexpedited squeezing out the scheduled jobs.
cut the supplier's lead time to six days. AfterForecasting errors also increases the need for even
streamlining the factory layout to reduce much of thelonger lead times, and the planning loop swells-driving
work-in-process inventory, the lead time fell to threeup costs, increasing delays, and creating inefficiencies in
days. Finally, the elimination of all work-in-processthe value-delivery system.
inventories resulted in the supplier being able toYou can overcome the planning loop trap by utilizing
respond to Toyota with only a one-day notice.lean tools and techniques to produce at the rate of
Companies can become more flexible (reducingcustomer demand and enjoy the following benefits:
wasted time) by applying the basic principles of Lean· Dramatic reduction in inventories
thinking. Some of the key techniques are explained· Reduced operating costs
below. All of these tools attempt to create continuous· Reduction in delays
flow and pull at the rate of customer demand, thereby· Improved customer response time
shortening lead times and reducing inventories.· Improved efficiency
Continuous FlowThe planning loop is a time trap. Lean thinking forces
This requires sequencing production or serviceyou to look at this time trap and develop solutions to
activities so that they move in a flawless manner. Ineliminate the trap and never get caught in it again.
continuous flow, the processing of a part or document